Section 4.2.2
The simplest way to analyze an economy's aggregate trend growth is to split it into
growth from changes in employment (growth from labor inputs), and
growth from changes in labor productivity.
For longer-term analysis, growth from changes in employment is broken down further
into growth in the size of the potential labor force and growth in the actual labor force
participation rate.
Growth from changes in Percent
Growth in potential
labor force +1.9
Employment
Growth in labor
force participation −0.3
+ Labor productivity Growth in labor
productivity +1.4
=Estimate of GDP growth rate 3.0
3.) Using the data in Exhibit 2 and Fiske's preferred approach, the estimated expected
annual return for US large-cap equities over the next 10 years is closest to:
A. 7.9%.
B. 7.6%.
C. 7.4%.
Answer = B
“Capital Market Expectations,” John P. Calverley, Alan M. Meder, Brian D. Singer, and
Renato Staub
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